BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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East Carolina

AAC · 0-2 · power +10.4 · #79
Our numberALA -25.0 no book has priced this game

Alabama

SEC · 2-0 (1-0 SEC) · power +33.7 · #4
Final ECU 10 · ALA 48 ML W Spread L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineALA to win logged ours 92%

Our number: ALA by 12.5 — ALA to win.

ECU team totalECU over 12.5 logged ours 15.9

Our number: ECU 20.4, from our margin and total split into two scores.

ALA team totalALA under 40.5 logged ours 40.9

Our number: ALA 32.9, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 16–41 ECU – ALA
2026-09-05 · 12:00 PM Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa, AL Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book ECU spreadALA spread OverUnder ECU winALA win ECU TT overECU TT under ALA TT overALA TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread ECU 56% bets · 27% money · money ALA total Under 73% bets · 68% money ML ALA 97% bets · 91% money
Series Alabama lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 1998
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 24 ranks apart
East Carolina Pirates #121 rush offense Alabama Crimson Tide #97 run defense
Pass game even 23 ranks apart
East Carolina Pirates #52 pass offense Alabama Crimson Tide #29 pass defense
Run game edge East Carolina Pirates 168 ranks
Alabama Crimson Tide #213 rush offense East Carolina Pirates #45 run defense
Pass game even 17 ranks apart
Alabama Crimson Tide #49 pass offense East Carolina Pirates #32 pass defense
East Carolina Pirates Balanced · 53% run Avg pace Alabama Crimson Tide Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Blake Harrell · 14-5 Kalen DeBoer · 57-17

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
East Carolina Pirates
WR Jeremiah Melvin 11 rec · 154 yds · 1 TD #89 WR
DL Kendrick DuJour 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #255 DL
DL Torin Brazell 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #307 DL
LB Crews Law 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #220 LB
Alabama Crimson Tide
K Conor Talty 5 FG · 10 XP · 25 pts #2 K
LB Yhonzae Pierre 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #30 LB
LB Luke Metz 10 tkl #35 LB
RB Daniel Hill 151 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #29 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
East Carolina PiratesAAC +10.4 +3.9 +6.5 #79
Alabama Crimson TideSEC +33.7 +18.9 +14.9 #4

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
East Carolina offense vs Alabama defense-11.0 pts
Alabama offense vs East Carolina defense+12.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 603 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.