BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

North Alabama

· 1-2 · power -7.9 · #274
Our numberARK -28.8 no book has priced this game

Arkansas

SEC · 1-1 · power +10.4 · #80
Final UNA 14 · ARK 31 ML W Spread W Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineARK to win logged ours 95%

Our number: ARK by 31.9 — ARK to win.

Projected score 14–43 UNA – ARK
2026-09-05 · 4:15 PM Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UNA spreadARK spread OverUnder UNA winARK win UNA TT overUNA TT under ARK TT overARK TT under
DraftKings — — — — — —
FanDuel — — — — — —
BetMGM — — — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — — — —
Caesars — — — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread UNA 98% bets · 44% money · money ARK total Under 93% bets · 81% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Alabama Lions 111 ranks
North Alabama Lions #125 rush offense Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game even 27 ranks apart
North Alabama Lions #210 pass offense Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Run game edge Arkansas Razorbacks 182 ranks
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense North Alabama Lions #195 run defense
Pass game edge Arkansas Razorbacks 186 ranks
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense North Alabama Lions #260 pass defense
North Alabama Lions Run-heavy · 63% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg Arkansas Razorbacks Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Alabama Lions
DB Tae Martin 23 tkl · 4 PD #11 DB
DL Avery Howard 17 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #20 DL
WR Xavier Johnson 19 rec · 386 yds · 2 TD #14 WR
DL Cayden Adkins 11 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #29 DL
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB Khmori House 8 tkl #173 DB
WR Chris Marshall 12 rec · 142 yds #196 WR
DB Christian Harrison 9 tkl · 1 INT #325 DB
DB Joker Johnson 10 tkl · 1 PD #465 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Alabama Lions -7.9 -4.2 -3.7 #274
Arkansas RazorbacksSEC +10.4 +5.8 +4.5 #80

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Alabama offense vs Arkansas defense-8.8 pts
Arkansas offense vs North Alabama defense+9.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.