BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Baylor

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.3 · #47
Our numberAUB -3.4 no book has priced this game

Auburn

SEC · 2-0 · power +21.2 · #30
Final BAY 16 · AUB 17 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineAUB to win logged ours 58%

Our number: AUB by 4.0 — AUB to win.

BAY team totalBAY under 25.5 logged ours 23.7

Our number: BAY 23.2, from our margin and total split into two scores.

AUB team totalAUB under 33.5 logged ours 27.1

Our number: AUB 27.2, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 24–27 BAY – AUB
2026-09-05 · 3:30 PM Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA · neutral Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book BAY spreadAUB spread OverUnder BAY winAUB win BAY TT overBAY TT under AUB TT overAUB TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread AUB 65% bets · 73% money total Under 77% bets · 73% money ML AUB 93% bets · 83% money
Series Auburn and Baylor split 5 (2–2–1) · 5 meetings since 1954
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Auburn Tigers 63 ranks
Baylor Bears #68 rush offense Auburn Tigers #5 run defense
Pass game even 17 ranks apart
Baylor Bears #144 pass offense Auburn Tigers #127 pass defense
Run game edge Auburn Tigers 143 ranks
Auburn Tigers #23 rush offense Baylor Bears #166 run defense
Pass game edge Baylor Bears 58 ranks
Auburn Tigers #193 pass offense Baylor Bears #135 pass defense
Baylor Bears Balanced · 42% run Avg pace Auburn Tigers Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Dave Aranda · 36-37 Hugh Freeze · 64-44

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Baylor Bears
WR Gavin Freeman 22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD #9 WR
DL Garrick Ponder 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #56 DL
DL Devonte Tezino 4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #73 DL
DB Devin Turner 9 tkl · 1 PD #235 DB
Auburn Tigers
LB Elijah Melendez 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #4 LB
DB Andre Jordan Jr. 5 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #14 DB
DL Cody Sigler 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #149 DL
DB Eric Winters 14 tkl #194 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Baylor BearsB12 +17.3 +9.6 +7.7 #47
Auburn TigersSEC +21.2 +5.8 +15.4 #30

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Baylor offense vs Auburn defense-5.8 pts
Auburn offense vs Baylor defense-1.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 754 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.