BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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Florida Atlantic

AAC · 1-1 (1-0 AAC) · power +1.9 · #153
Our numberFLA -19.8 no book has priced this game

Florida

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.0 · #38
Final FAU 21 · FLA 66 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineFLA to win logged ours 87%

Our number: FLA by 20.6 — FLA to win.

FAU team totalFAU under 16.5 logged live now: FAU over 16.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 22.3

Our number: FAU 14.6, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 22–42 FAU – FLA
2026-09-05 · 7:45 PM Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Gainesville, FL Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book FAU spreadFLA spread OverUnder FAU winFLA win FAU TT overFAU TT under FLA TT overFLA TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 8 days ago spread FAU 56% bets · 30% money · money FLA total Under 96% bets · 52% money ML FLA 99% bets · 97% money
Series Florida lead 4–0 · 4 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Florida Gators 133 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense Florida Gators #78 run defense
Pass game edge Florida Atlantic Owls 76 ranks
Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense Florida Gators #168 pass defense
Run game edge Florida Gators 165 ranks
Florida Gators #80 rush offense Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense
Pass game even 26 ranks apart
Florida Gators #184 pass offense Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense
Florida Atlantic Owls Pass-heavy · 37% run Ball-control Florida Gators Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded Billy Napier · 62-35

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Atlantic Owls
WR Easton Messer 15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD #12 WR
WR Kelby Valsin 18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD #15 WR
DB Jayden Sweeney 12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #95 DB
DB Josh Roberts 7 tkl #104 DB
Florida Gators
DL Jeramiah McCloud 12 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #27 DL
RB Jadan Baugh 296 rush yds · 5 TD #12 RB
WR Vernell Brown III 9 rec · 160 yds · 2 TD #112 WR
DL LJ McCray 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #207 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida Atlantic OwlsAAC +1.9 +9.4 -7.5 #153
Florida GatorsSEC +20.0 +9.7 +10.3 #38

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida Atlantic offense vs Florida defense-1.0 pts
Florida offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+17.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.