BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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Youngstown State

· 2-1 · power +2.8 · #141
Our numberUK -23.2 no book has priced this game

Kentucky

SEC · 1-1 (0-1 SEC) · power +14.3 · #58
Final YSU 13 · UK 45 our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUK to win ours 90%
Projected score 19–42 YSU – UK
2026-09-05 · 1:00 PM Kroger Field · Lexington, KY Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book YSU spreadUK spread OverUnder YSU winUK win YSU TT overYSU TT under UK TT overUK TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread YSU 61% bets · 55% money total Under 86% bets · 79% money ML UK 99% bets · 99% money
Series Kentucky lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2022
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Youngstown State Penguins 84 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense Kentucky Wildcats #114 run defense
Pass game edge Youngstown State Penguins 152 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense Kentucky Wildcats #186 pass defense
Run game even 1 ranks apart
Kentucky Wildcats #190 rush offense Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game edge Kentucky Wildcats 51 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #168 pass offense Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Youngstown State Penguins Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg Kentucky Wildcats Balanced · 56% run Ball-control
Mark Stoops · 75-63

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Youngstown State Penguins
WR Lynn Wyche-El 18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD #16 WR
QB Beau Brungard 765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #10 QB
P Evan Anderson 5 punts · 47.0 yd avg #6 P
RB Jaden Gilbert 129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec #44 RB
Kentucky Wildcats
DL Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #5 DL
DB Jordan Castell 16 tkl · 1 INT #22 DB
DL Tavion Gadson 5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #33 DL
TE Willie Rodriguez 12 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD #16 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Youngstown State Penguins +2.8 +8.1 -5.4 #141
Kentucky WildcatsSEC +14.3 +4.7 +9.5 #58

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Youngstown State offense vs Kentucky defense-1.4 pts
Kentucky offense vs Youngstown State defense+10.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.