BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Clemson

ACC · 1-1 · power +15.6 · #53
Our numberLSU -13.2 no book has priced this game

LSU

SEC · 2-0 · power +27.0 · #10
Final CLEM 10 · LSU 51 ML W Spread L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineLSU to win logged ours 77%

Our number: LSU by 1.9 — LSU to win.

CLEM team totalCLEM over 19.5 logged ours 19.5

Our number: CLEM 22.6, from our margin and total split into two scores.

LSU team totalLSU under 30.5 logged ours 32.7

Our number: LSU 24.5, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 20–33 CLEM – LSU
2026-09-05 · 9:40 PM Tiger Stadium (LA) · Baton Rouge, LA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book CLEM spreadLSU spread OverUnder CLEM winLSU win CLEM TT overCLEM TT under LSU TT overLSU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread CLEM 52% bets · 37% money · money LSU total Under 60% bets · 61% money ML LSU 95% bets · 89% money
Series LSU lead 4–1 · 5 meetings since 1958
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge LSU Tigers 102 ranks
Clemson Tigers #131 rush offense LSU Tigers #29 run defense
Pass game even 11 ranks apart
Clemson Tigers #101 pass offense LSU Tigers #90 pass defense
Run game edge Clemson Tigers 103 ranks
LSU Tigers #170 rush offense Clemson Tigers #67 run defense
Pass game edge Clemson Tigers 93 ranks
LSU Tigers #177 pass offense Clemson Tigers #84 pass defense
Clemson Tigers Balanced · 45% run Avg pace LSU Tigers Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Dabo Swinney · 126-27 Frank Wilson · 21-32 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Clemson Tigers
DL Will Heldt 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #42 DL
DB Elliot Washington II 10 tkl · 3 PD #153 DB
K Nolan Hauser 6 FG · 2 XP · 20 pts #23 K
DB Jerome Carter III 15 tkl · 1 PD #184 DB
LSU Tigers
DL Jordan Ross 7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #3 DL
DL Princewill Umanmielen 11 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6.0 TFL #4 DL
TE Trey'Dez Green 10 rec · 162 yds · 1 TD #5 TE
RB Dilin Jones 179 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec #45 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Clemson TigersACC +15.6 +4.8 +10.7 #53
LSU TigersSEC +27.0 +12.8 +14.2 #10

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Clemson offense vs LSU defense-9.4 pts
LSU offense vs Clemson defense+2.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 568 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.