FinalULM 13 · MSST 62ML WSpread LTotal Lour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMSST to winloggedours 93%
Our number: MSST by 20.2 — MSST to win.
ULM team totalULM over 12.5loggedours 16.8
Our number: ULM 15.5, from our margin and total split into two scores.
MSST team totalMSST under 41.5loggedours 42.8
Our number: MSST 35.8, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Projected score17–43ULM – MSST
2026-09-05 · 7:30 PMDavis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MSEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
ULM spread
MSST spread
Over
Under
ULM win
MSST win
ULM TT over
ULM TT under
MSST TT over
MSST TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
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The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured 8 days agospreadULM 96% bets · 80% moneytotalUnder 88% bets · 63% moneyMLMSST 99% bets · 98% money
Series
Mississippi State lead
4–1–1
· 6 meetings since 1972
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameeven41 ranks apart
UL Monroe Warhawks #204 rush offenseMississippi State Bulldogs #163 run defense
Pass gameeven5 ranks apart
UL Monroe Warhawks #137 pass offenseMississippi State Bulldogs #132 pass defense
Run gameeven17 ranks apart
Mississippi State Bulldogs #102 rush offenseUL Monroe Warhawks #119 run defense
Pass gameedge Mississippi State Bulldogs50 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #149 pass offenseUL Monroe Warhawks #199 pass defense
UL Monroe WarhawksRun-heavy · 61% runBall-controlMississippi State BulldogsBalanced · 57% runAvg pace
Bryant Vincent · 15-22Jeff Lebby · 7-18
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UL Monroe offense vs Mississippi State defense-8.8 pts
Mississippi State offense vs UL Monroe defense+15.6 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.