BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Texas State

SBC · 0-2 · power +10.8 · #78
Our numberTEX -20.9 no book has priced this game

Texas

SEC · 2-0 · power +30.0 · #7
Final TXST 7 · TEX 59 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineTEX to win logged ours 88%

Our number: TEX by 15.8 — TEX to win.

TEX team totalTEX under 45.5 logged ours 40.5

Our number: TEX 34.5, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 20–40 TXST – TEX
2026-09-05 · 3:30 PM DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book TXST spreadTEX spread OverUnder TXST winTEX win TXST TT overTXST TT under TEX TT overTEX TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread TXST 86% bets · 39% money · money TEX total Under 88% bets · 65% money ML TEX 99% bets · 97% money
Series Texas lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 1930
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 24 ranks apart
Texas State Bobcats #9 rush offense Texas Longhorns #33 run defense
Pass game even 37 ranks apart
Texas State Bobcats #44 pass offense Texas Longhorns #81 pass defense
Run game even 24 ranks apart
Texas Longhorns #130 rush offense Texas State Bobcats #154 run defense
Pass game edge Texas Longhorns 45 ranks
Texas Longhorns #104 pass offense Texas State Bobcats #149 pass defense
Texas State Bobcats Run-heavy · 58% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 58 rush ypg Texas Longhorns Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
G.J. Kinne · 23-16 · offense-minded Steve Sarkisian · 48-20

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Texas State Bobcats
DB Ryan Nolan 17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #26 DB
DB Jayden Bradley 18 tkl #126 DB
RB Davian Jackson 128 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #80 RB
DL Tymere Jackson 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #201 DL
Texas Longhorns
RB Hollywood Smothers 144 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #17 RB
DB Graceson Littleton 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #52 DB
WR Ryan Wingo 11 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #64 WR
LB Justin Cryer 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #88 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Texas State BobcatsSBC +10.8 +10.0 +0.7 #78
Texas LonghornsSEC +30.0 +14.2 +15.8 #7

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Texas State offense vs Texas defense-5.8 pts
Texas offense vs Texas State defense+13.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.