BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Austin Peay

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #117
Our numberVAN -27.1 no book has priced this game

Vanderbilt

SEC · 2-0 · power +21.8 · #28
Final APSU 9 · VAN 28 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineVAN to win logged ours 93%

Our number: VAN by 32.2 — VAN to win.

Projected score 15–42 APSU – VAN
2026-09-05 · 7:00 PM FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book APSU spreadVAN spread OverUnder APSU winVAN win APSU TT overAPSU TT under VAN TT overVAN TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread APSU 93% bets · 85% money total Under 93% bets · 94% money
Series Vanderbilt lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 28 ranks apart
Austin Peay Governors #22 rush offense Vanderbilt Commodores #50 run defense
Pass game edge Austin Peay Governors 166 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #28 pass offense Vanderbilt Commodores #194 pass defense
Run game edge Vanderbilt Commodores 97 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #4 rush offense Austin Peay Governors #101 run defense
Pass game edge Vanderbilt Commodores 57 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #6 pass offense Austin Peay Governors #63 pass defense
Austin Peay Governors Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg Vanderbilt Commodores Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 69 rush ypg
Clark Lea · 26-36 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Austin Peay Governors
DL Demoris Jenkins 8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #55 DL
WR Denver Harper 7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD #45 WR
DB Trevor Hardy 21 tkl · 1 PD #100 DB
DL Malik Denkins 7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #210 DL
Vanderbilt Commodores
LB Nick Rinaldi 13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #7 LB
DB CJ Heard 14 tkl · 1 PD #21 DB
DL Miles Capers 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #23 DL
DL Issa Ouattara 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #139 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Austin Peay Governors +5.6 +2.8 +2.7 #117
Vanderbilt CommodoresSEC +21.8 +11.2 +10.6 #28

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Austin Peay offense vs Vanderbilt defense-7.8 pts
Vanderbilt offense vs Austin Peay defense+8.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.