Our side · spreadALA -10.5loggedour number at the pick ALA -11.8 · now ALA -17.4 · 8.9 pts from the market now
Kentucky
SEC · 1-1 (0-1 SEC) · power +14.3 · #58
FinalALA 45 · UK 17ML WSpread WTotal Wour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadALA -10.5loggedlive now: ALA -8.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours ALA -17.4
The line has not moved a point since it opened (UK +10.25 → +10.5), so our number decides: ALA by 11.8 against UK +10.5 means ALA covers.
TotalOver 49.5loggedlive now: Over 47.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 55.7
The market's move decides. The total opened 48.5 and is now 49.5, toward the over; that side has covered 55.1% at the opener since 2021. Ours at the pick: 50.0 — the same side.
MoneylineALA to winloggedours 17% · book 25%
Our number: ALA by 11.8 — ALA to win.
UK team totalUK under 19.5loggedlive now: UK over 18.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 19.1
Our number: UK 19.1, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Distance from the market8.9 pts / +8.2 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score36–19ALA – UK
2026-09-12 · 3:30 PMKroger Field · Lexington, KYSEC gameEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
ALA spread
UK spread
Over
Under
ALA win
UK win
ALA TT over
ALA TT under
UK TT over
UK TT under
DraftKings
—
—
—
—
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadAlabama -17.4
the marketKentucky +8.5
Total55.7
the market47.5
Kentucky win17%
vs 25%
Both percentages are Kentucky’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadALA 79% bets · 66% moneytotalUnder 70% bets · 51% moneyMLALA 98% bets · 96% money
Series
Alabama lead
39–2–1
· 42 meetings since 1917
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Kentucky Wildcats99 ranks
Alabama Crimson Tide #213 rush offenseKentucky Wildcats #114 run defense
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alabama offense vs Kentucky defense+9.3 pts
Kentucky offense vs Alabama defense-10.1 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.