Our side · spreadMINN +1loggedour number at the pick MINN -0.1 · now MSST -11.5 · 10.5 pts from the market now
Minnesota
B1G · 1-1 · power +6.8 · #104
FinalMSST 38 · MINN 13ML LSpread LTotal Wour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadMINN +1loggedlive now: MSST -1 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours MSST -11.5
The line has not moved a point since it opened (MINN +1.5 → +1), so our number decides: MINN by 0.1 against MINN +1 means MINN covers.
TotalUnder 55.5loggedlive now: Over 54.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 59.1
The total has not moved a point since it opened (55.5 → 55.5); ours 53.3 against 55.5 says under.
MoneylineMINN to winloggedlive now: MSST to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 26% · book 50%
Our number: MINN by 0.1 — MINN to win.
MSST team totalMSST under 27.5loggedours 35.3
Our number: MSST 26.6, from our margin and total split into two scores.
MINN team totalMINN under 27.5loggedours 23.8
Our number: MINN 26.7, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Distance from the market10.5 pts / +4.6 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score35–24MSST – MINN
2026-09-12 · 3:30 PMHuntington Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MNEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
MSST spread
MINN spread
Over
Under
MSST win
MINN win
MSST TT over
MSST TT under
MINN TT over
MINN TT under
DraftKings
—
—
—
—
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadMississippi State -11.5
the marketMinnesota +1.0
Total59.1
the market54.5
Minnesota win26%
vs 50%
Both percentages are Minnesota’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadMSST 77% bets · 82% moneytotalOver 57% bets · 47% money · money UnderMLMSST 71% bets · 85% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameeven15 ranks apart
Mississippi State Bulldogs #102 rush offenseMinnesota Golden Gophers #117 run defense
Pass gameedge Minnesota Golden Gophers69 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #149 pass offenseMinnesota Golden Gophers #80 pass defense
Run gameedge Mississippi State Bulldogs61 ranks
Minnesota Golden Gophers #224 rush offenseMississippi State Bulldogs #163 run defense
Pass gameeven3 ranks apart
Minnesota Golden Gophers #129 pass offenseMississippi State Bulldogs #132 pass defense
Mississippi State BulldogsBalanced · 57% runAvg paceMinnesota Golden GophersBalanced · 44% runBall-control
Jeff Lebby · 7-18P.J. Fleck · 87-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Mississippi State offense vs Minnesota defense+9.7 pts
Minnesota offense vs Mississippi State defense-3.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 830 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.