Our side · spreadKU +6.5loggedour number at the pick MIZ -6.1 · now MIZ -8.8 · 4.3 pts from the market now
Kansas
B12 · 1-1 · power +9.5 · #89
FinalMIZ 38 · KU 21ML LSpread LTotal Lour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadKU +6.5loggedlive now: MIZ -4.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours MIZ -8.8
The line has not moved a point since it opened (KU +6.25 → +6.5), so our number decides: MIZ by 6.1 against KU +6.5 means KU covers.
TotalUnder 50.5loggedlive now: Over 51.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 57.4
The total has not moved a point since it opened (50.5 → 50.5); ours 50.0 against 50.5 says under.
MoneylineKU to winloggedlive now: MIZ to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 31% · book 37%
Our number: MIZ by 6.1 — KU to win.
MIZ team totalMIZ over 27.5loggedlive now: MIZ under 28.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 33.1
Our number: MIZ 28.0, from our margin and total split into two scores.
KU team totalKU over 21.5loggedlive now: KU under 23.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 24.3
Our number: KU 21.9, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Distance from the market4.3 pts / +5.9 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score33–24MIZ – KU
2026-09-11 · 8:00 PMDavid Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium · Lawrence, KSEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
MIZ spread
KU spread
Over
Under
MIZ win
KU win
MIZ TT over
MIZ TT under
KU TT over
KU TT under
DraftKings
—
—
—
—
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadMissouri -8.8
the marketKansas +4.5
Total57.4
the market51.5
Kansas win31%
vs 37%
Both percentages are Kansas’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadMIZ 69% bets · 56% moneytotalUnder 66% bets · 62% moneyMLMIZ 89% bets · 64% money
Series
Missouri lead
55–48–8
· 111 meetings since 1901
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Missouri Tigers93 ranks
Missouri Tigers #29 rush offenseKansas Jayhawks #122 run defense
Eli Drinkwitz · 58-30Lance Leipold · 64-68 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Missouri offense vs Kansas defense+6.7 pts
Kansas offense vs Missouri defense-4.1 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.