Our side · spreadGT +12.5loggedour number at the pick TENN -10.8 · now TENN -12.9 · 0.4 pts from the market now
Georgia Tech
ACC · 0-2 · power +12.0 · #75
FinalTENN 45 · GT 24ML WSpread LTotal Lour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadGT +12.5loggedlive now: TENN -12.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours TENN -12.9
The market's move decides. The line opened GT +13.5 and is now GT +12.5, toward GT; since 2021 the side the market moves toward has covered 54.7% at the opener, and our own number has carried nothing the closing line lacks. Our number at the pick: TENN by 10.8 — the same side.
TotalUnder 55.5loggedlive now: Over 55.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 62.3
The total has not moved a point since it opened (55 → 55.5); ours 52.5 against 55.5 says under.
MoneylineTENN to winloggedours 24% · book 20%
Our number: TENN by 10.8 — TENN to win.
TENN team totalTENN under 34.5loggedours 37.6
Our number: TENN 31.7, from our margin and total split into two scores.
GT team totalGT over 20.5loggedlive now: GT under 21.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 24.7
Our number: GT 20.8, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Distance from the market0.4 pts / +6.8 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score38–25TENN – GT
2026-09-12 · 7:00 PMBobby Dodd Stadium · Atlanta, GAEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
TENN spread
GT spread
Over
Under
TENN win
GT win
TENN TT over
TENN TT under
GT TT over
GT TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
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The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadTennessee -12.9
the marketGeorgia Tech +12.5
Total62.3
the market55.5
Georgia Tech win24%
vs 20%
Both percentages are Georgia Tech’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadTENN 72% bets · 65% moneytotalOver 77% bets · 79% moneyMLTENN 99% bets · 94% money
Series
Tennessee lead
25–17–2
· 44 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Tennessee offense vs Georgia Tech defense+13.4 pts
Georgia Tech offense vs Tennessee defense-1.5 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.