BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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Kennesaw State

CUSA · 1-1 · power +0.2 · #170
Our side · spreadKENN +35.5 our number TENN -31.8 · 3.7 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected +3.5 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Tennessee

SEC · 2-0 · power +26.9 · #12
Our side
SpreadKENN +35.5 ours TENN -31.8
TotalUnder 60.5 ours 56.6
MoneylineTENN to win ours 94%
Distance from the market 3.7 pts / -3.9 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 12–44 KENN – TENN
2026-09-19 · 7:45 PM Neyland Stadium · Knoxville, TN Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book KENN spreadTENN spread OverUnder KENN winTENN win KENN TT overKENN TT under TENN TT overTENN TT under
FanDuel — — — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadTennessee -31.8
the marketTennessee -35.5
Total56.6
the market60.5
Tennessee win94% vs —

Both percentages are Tennessee’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Tennessee Volunteers 60 ranks
Kennesaw State Owls #151 rush offense Tennessee Volunteers #91 run defense
Pass game even 33 ranks apart
Kennesaw State Owls #62 pass offense Tennessee Volunteers #95 pass defense
Run game edge Tennessee Volunteers 187 ranks
Tennessee Volunteers #24 rush offense Kennesaw State Owls #211 run defense
Pass game edge Tennessee Volunteers 80 ranks
Tennessee Volunteers #31 pass offense Kennesaw State Owls #111 pass defense
Kennesaw State Owls Run-heavy · 59% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg Tennessee Volunteers Balanced · 52% run Avg pace
Jerry Mack · 10-4 Josh Heupel · 73-28 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Kennesaw State Owls
QB Rickie Collins 416 pass yds · 2 TD · 1 INT #50 QB
DL Ugonna Nwoha 3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #315 DL
DL Marcus Patterson 9 tkl · 1.5 TFL #450 DL
RB Latrelle Murrell 100 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #183 RB
Tennessee Volunteers
DL Xavier Gilliam 8 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.5 TFL #36 DL
DB Dejuan Lane 4 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #35 DB
RB DeSean Bishop 244 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #16 RB
QB Faizon Brandon 374 pass yds · 5 TD · 0 INT #16 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Kennesaw State OwlsCUSA +0.2 -1.4 +1.7 #170
Tennessee VolunteersSEC +26.9 +22.0 +5.0 #12

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Kennesaw State offense vs Tennessee defense-6.4 pts
Tennessee offense vs Kennesaw State defense+20.3 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.