← Matchups

Missouri

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.3 · #36
Our numberMSST -1.4 no book has priced this game

Mississippi State

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.2 · #37
Our side
MoneylineMSST to win ours 54%
Projected score 27–28 MIZ – MSST
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Missouri lead 4–2 · 6 meetings since 1981
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Missouri Tigers 134 ranks
Missouri Tigers #29 rush offense Mississippi State Bulldogs #163 run defense
Pass game edge Mississippi State Bulldogs 85 ranks
Missouri Tigers #217 pass offense Mississippi State Bulldogs #132 pass defense
Run game edge Missouri Tigers 45 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #102 rush offense Missouri Tigers #57 run defense
Pass game edge Missouri Tigers 138 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #149 pass offense Missouri Tigers #11 pass defense
Missouri Tigers Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Mississippi State Bulldogs Balanced · 57% run Avg pace
Eli Drinkwitz · 58-30 Jeff Lebby · 7-18

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Missouri Tigers
WR Donovan Olugbode 14 rec · 237 yds · 3 TD #28 WR
QB Austin Simmons 544 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #15 QB
WR Cayden Lee 10 rec · 200 yds · 2 TD #78 WR
RB Jamal Roberts 172 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #136 RB
Mississippi State Bulldogs
QB Kamario Taylor 581 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #5 QB
WR Anthony Evans III 14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD #20 WR
K Kyle Ferrie 3 FG · 13 XP · 22 pts #19 K
RB Fluff Bothwell 165 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #66 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Missouri TigersSEC +20.3 +8.6 +11.7 #36
Mississippi State BulldogsSEC +20.2 +15.3 +4.9 #37

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Missouri offense vs Mississippi State defense+3.6 pts
Mississippi State offense vs Missouri defense+3.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 427 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.