Our side
MoneylineALA to win
ours 24%
Projected score
32–24
ALA – MSST
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS
SEC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Alabama lead
86–17–3
· 106 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Mississippi State Bulldogs
50 ranks
Alabama Crimson Tide #213 rush offense
Mississippi State Bulldogs #163 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama Crimson Tide
83 ranks
Alabama Crimson Tide #49 pass offense
Mississippi State Bulldogs #132 pass defense
Run game
even
5 ranks apart
Mississippi State Bulldogs #102 rush offense
Alabama Crimson Tide #97 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama Crimson Tide
120 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #149 pass offense
Alabama Crimson Tide #29 pass defense
Alabama Crimson Tide
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Kalen DeBoer · 57-17
Jeff Lebby · 7-18
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Alabama Crimson Tide
K
Conor Talty
5 FG · 10 XP · 25 pts
#2 K
LB
Yhonzae Pierre
4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#30 LB
LB
Luke Metz
10 tkl
#35 LB
RB
Daniel Hill
151 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#29 RB
Mississippi State Bulldogs
QB
Kamario Taylor
581 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
#5 QB
WR
Anthony Evans III
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#20 WR
K
Kyle Ferrie
3 FG · 13 XP · 22 pts
#19 K
RB
Fluff Bothwell
165 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#66 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alabama offense vs Mississippi State defense+13.9 pts
Mississippi State offense vs Alabama defense+0.4 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.