← Matchups

Florida

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.0 · #38
Our numberFLA -0.2 no book has priced this game

Missouri

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.3 · #36
Our side
MoneylineMIZ to win ours 55%
Projected score 26–26 FLA – MIZ
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Memorial Stadium · Columbia, MO SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Missouri lead 7–6 · 13 meetings since 1965
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 23 ranks apart
Florida Gators #80 rush offense Missouri Tigers #57 run defense
Pass game edge Missouri Tigers 173 ranks
Florida Gators #184 pass offense Missouri Tigers #11 pass defense
Run game edge Missouri Tigers 49 ranks
Missouri Tigers #29 rush offense Florida Gators #78 run defense
Pass game edge Florida Gators 49 ranks
Missouri Tigers #217 pass offense Florida Gators #168 pass defense
Florida Gators Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Missouri Tigers Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace
Billy Napier · 62-35 Eli Drinkwitz · 58-30

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Gators
DL Jeramiah McCloud 12 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #27 DL
RB Jadan Baugh 296 rush yds · 5 TD #12 RB
WR Vernell Brown III 9 rec · 160 yds · 2 TD #112 WR
DL LJ McCray 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #207 DL
Missouri Tigers
WR Donovan Olugbode 14 rec · 237 yds · 3 TD #28 WR
QB Austin Simmons 544 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #15 QB
WR Cayden Lee 10 rec · 200 yds · 2 TD #78 WR
RB Jamal Roberts 172 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #136 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida GatorsSEC +20.0 +9.7 +10.3 #38
Missouri TigersSEC +20.3 +8.6 +11.7 #36

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida offense vs Missouri defense-2.0 pts
Missouri offense vs Florida defense-1.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 857 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.