← Matchups

Kentucky

SEC · 1-1 (0-1 SEC) · power +14.3 · #58
Our numberSC -9.9 no book has priced this game

South Carolina

SEC · 2-0 · power +18.0 · #45
Our side
MoneylineSC to win ours 63%
Projected score 20–30 UK – SC
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia, SC SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Carolina lead 22–14–1 · 37 meetings since 1937
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Carolina Gamecocks 184 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #190 rush offense South Carolina Gamecocks #6 run defense
Pass game edge South Carolina Gamecocks 52 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #168 pass offense South Carolina Gamecocks #116 pass defense
Run game even 26 ranks apart
South Carolina Gamecocks #140 rush offense Kentucky Wildcats #114 run defense
Pass game edge South Carolina Gamecocks 56 ranks
South Carolina Gamecocks #130 pass offense Kentucky Wildcats #186 pass defense
Kentucky Wildcats Balanced · 56% run Ball-control South Carolina Gamecocks Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Mark Stoops · 75-63 Shane Beamer · 33-30 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Kentucky Wildcats
DL Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #5 DL
DB Jordan Castell 16 tkl · 1 INT #22 DB
DL Tavion Gadson 5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #33 DL
TE Willie Rodriguez 12 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD #16 TE
South Carolina Gamecocks
RB Matt Fuller 199 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #93 RB
DL Anthony Addison 3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #233 DL
WR Donovan Murph 4 rec · 92 yds · 2 TD #164 WR
DL Tomiwa Durojaiye 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #288 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Kentucky WildcatsSEC +14.3 +4.7 +9.5 #58
South Carolina GamecocksSEC +18.0 +6.4 +11.7 #45

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Kentucky offense vs South Carolina defense-6.9 pts
South Carolina offense vs Kentucky defense-3.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.