Our side
MoneylineTENN to win
ours 18%
Projected score
38–21
TENN – ARK
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR
SEC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Tennessee lead
14–7
· 21 meetings since 1907
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Tennessee Volunteers
212 ranks
Tennessee Volunteers #24 rush offense
Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game
edge Tennessee Volunteers
206 ranks
Tennessee Volunteers #31 pass offense
Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Run game
edge Arkansas Razorbacks
78 ranks
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense
Tennessee Volunteers #91 run defense
Pass game
even
21 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense
Tennessee Volunteers #95 pass defense
Tennessee Volunteers
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Arkansas Razorbacks
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Josh Heupel · 73-28 · offense-minded
Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee Volunteers
DL
Xavier Gilliam
8 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.5 TFL
#36 DL
DB
Dejuan Lane
4 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#35 DB
RB
DeSean Bishop
244 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#16 RB
QB
Faizon Brandon
374 pass yds · 5 TD · 0 INT
#16 QB
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB
Khmori House
8 tkl
#173 DB
WR
Chris Marshall
12 rec · 142 yds
#196 WR
DB
Christian Harrison
9 tkl · 1 INT
#325 DB
DB
Joker Johnson
10 tkl · 1 PD
#465 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Tennessee offense vs Arkansas defense+17.4 pts
Arkansas offense vs Tennessee defense+0.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 573 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.