← Matchups

South Carolina

SEC · 2-0 · power +18.0 · #45
Our numberFLA -4.5 no book has priced this game

Florida

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.0 · #38
Our side
MoneylineFLA to win ours 59%
Projected score 23–28 SC – FLA
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Gainesville, FL SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida lead 31–10–3 · 44 meetings since 1911
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Florida Gators 62 ranks
South Carolina Gamecocks #140 rush offense Florida Gators #78 run defense
Pass game even 38 ranks apart
South Carolina Gamecocks #130 pass offense Florida Gators #168 pass defense
Run game edge South Carolina Gamecocks 74 ranks
Florida Gators #80 rush offense South Carolina Gamecocks #6 run defense
Pass game edge South Carolina Gamecocks 68 ranks
Florida Gators #184 pass offense South Carolina Gamecocks #116 pass defense
South Carolina Gamecocks Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Florida Gators Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Shane Beamer · 33-30 · defense-minded Billy Napier · 62-35

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
South Carolina Gamecocks
RB Matt Fuller 199 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #93 RB
DL Anthony Addison 3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #233 DL
WR Donovan Murph 4 rec · 92 yds · 2 TD #164 WR
DL Tomiwa Durojaiye 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #288 DL
Florida Gators
DL Jeramiah McCloud 12 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #27 DL
RB Jadan Baugh 296 rush yds · 5 TD #12 RB
WR Vernell Brown III 9 rec · 160 yds · 2 TD #112 WR
DL LJ McCray 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #207 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
South Carolina GamecocksSEC +18.0 +6.4 +11.7 #45
Florida GatorsSEC +20.0 +9.7 +10.3 #38

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
South Carolina offense vs Florida defense-4.0 pts
Florida offense vs South Carolina defense-2.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.