← Matchups

LSU

SEC · 2-0 · power +27.0 · #10

Our numberLSU -15.1 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Kentucky

SEC · 1-1 (0-1 SEC) · power +14.3 · #58

Our side

MoneylineLSU to win ours 25%

Projected score 33–18 LSU – UK

2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD Kroger Field · Lexington, KY SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series LSU lead 40–17–1 · 58 meetings since 1949

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Kentucky Wildcats ~~56 ranks~~

LSU Tigers #170 rush offense Kentucky Wildcats #114 run defense

Pass game even ~~9 ranks apart~~

LSU Tigers #177 pass offense Kentucky Wildcats #186 pass defense

Run game edge LSU Tigers ~~161 ranks~~

Kentucky Wildcats #190 rush offense LSU Tigers #29 run defense

Pass game edge LSU Tigers ~~78 ranks~~

Kentucky Wildcats #168 pass offense LSU Tigers #90 pass defense

LSU Tigers Balanced · 45% run Ball-control Kentucky Wildcats Balanced · 56% run Ball-control

Frank Wilson · 21-32 · defense-minded Mark Stoops · 75-63

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

LSU Tigers

DL Jordan Ross 7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #3 DL

DL Princewill Umanmielen 11 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6.0 TFL #4 DL

TE Trey'Dez Green 10 rec · 162 yds · 1 TD #5 TE

RB Dilin Jones 179 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec #45 RB

Kentucky Wildcats

DL Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #5 DL

DB Jordan Castell 16 tkl · 1 INT #22 DB

DL Tavion Gadson 5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #33 DL

TE Willie Rodriguez 12 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD #16 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
LSU Tigers~~SEC~~	+27.0	+12.8	+14.2	#10
Kentucky Wildcats~~SEC~~	+14.3	+4.7	+9.5	#58

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

LSU offense vs Kentucky defense+3.2 pts

Kentucky offense vs LSU defense-9.5 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 649 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.