← Matchups

Texas

SEC · 2-0 · power +30.0 · #7
Our numberTEX -8.1 no book has priced this game

Oklahoma

SEC · 1-1 · power +23.9 · #20
Our side
MoneylineTEX to win ours 34%
Projected score 29–21 TEX – OU
2026-10-10 · 3:30 PM Cotton Bowl · Dallas, TX · neutral SEC game Early season

The books 3 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book TEX spreadOU spread OverUnder TEX winOU win TEX TT overTEX TT under OU TT overOU TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Series Texas lead 62–51–5 · 118 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Oklahoma Sooners 121 ranks
Texas Longhorns #130 rush offense Oklahoma Sooners #9 run defense
Pass game edge Oklahoma Sooners 94 ranks
Texas Longhorns #104 pass offense Oklahoma Sooners #10 pass defense
Run game edge Texas Longhorns 179 ranks
Oklahoma Sooners #212 rush offense Texas Longhorns #33 run defense
Pass game edge Texas Longhorns 71 ranks
Oklahoma Sooners #152 pass offense Texas Longhorns #81 pass defense
Texas Longhorns Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Oklahoma Sooners Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg
Steve Sarkisian · 48-20 Brent Venables · 32-20 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Texas Longhorns
RB Hollywood Smothers 144 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #17 RB
DB Graceson Littleton 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #52 DB
WR Ryan Wingo 11 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #64 WR
LB Justin Cryer 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #88 LB
Oklahoma Sooners
TE Rocky Beers 8 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD #13 TE
DB Reggie Powers III 11 tkl · 1 PD #103 DB
QB John Mateer 414 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #26 QB
DL Taylor Wein 11 tkl · 3.0 TFL #142 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Texas LonghornsSEC +30.0 +14.2 +15.8 #7
Oklahoma SoonersSEC +23.9 +6.0 +17.9 #20

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Texas offense vs Oklahoma defense-3.7 pts
Oklahoma offense vs Texas defense-9.8 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.