← Matchups

Kentucky

SEC · 1-1 (0-1 SEC) · power +14.3 · #58
Our numberOU -11.6 no book has priced this game

Oklahoma

SEC · 1-1 · power +23.9 · #20
Our side
MoneylineOU to win ours 76%
Projected score 18–30 UK – OU
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Norman, OK SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Oklahoma lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 1950
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Oklahoma Sooners 181 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #190 rush offense Oklahoma Sooners #9 run defense
Pass game edge Oklahoma Sooners 158 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #168 pass offense Oklahoma Sooners #10 pass defense
Run game edge Kentucky Wildcats 98 ranks
Oklahoma Sooners #212 rush offense Kentucky Wildcats #114 run defense
Pass game even 34 ranks apart
Oklahoma Sooners #152 pass offense Kentucky Wildcats #186 pass defense
Kentucky Wildcats Balanced · 56% run Ball-control Oklahoma Sooners Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg
Mark Stoops · 75-63 Brent Venables · 32-20 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Kentucky Wildcats
DL Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #5 DL
DB Jordan Castell 16 tkl · 1 INT #22 DB
DL Tavion Gadson 5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #33 DL
TE Willie Rodriguez 12 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD #16 TE
Oklahoma Sooners
TE Rocky Beers 8 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD #13 TE
DB Reggie Powers III 11 tkl · 1 PD #103 DB
QB John Mateer 414 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #26 QB
DL Taylor Wein 11 tkl · 3.0 TFL #142 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Kentucky WildcatsSEC +14.3 +4.7 +9.5 #58
Oklahoma SoonersSEC +23.9 +6.0 +17.9 #20

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Kentucky offense vs Oklahoma defense-13.2 pts
Oklahoma offense vs Kentucky defense-3.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 743 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.