← Matchups

Florida

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.0 · #38
Our numberTEX -5.6 no book has priced this game

Texas

SEC · 2-0 · power +30.0 · #7
Our side
MoneylineTEX to win ours 77%
Projected score 24–29 FLA – TEX
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Texas lead 3–1–1 · 5 meetings since 1924
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Texas Longhorns 47 ranks
Florida Gators #80 rush offense Texas Longhorns #33 run defense
Pass game edge Texas Longhorns 103 ranks
Florida Gators #184 pass offense Texas Longhorns #81 pass defense
Run game edge Florida Gators 52 ranks
Texas Longhorns #130 rush offense Florida Gators #78 run defense
Pass game edge Texas Longhorns 64 ranks
Texas Longhorns #104 pass offense Florida Gators #168 pass defense
Florida Gators Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Texas Longhorns Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Billy Napier · 62-35 Steve Sarkisian · 48-20

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Gators
DL Jeramiah McCloud 12 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #27 DL
RB Jadan Baugh 296 rush yds · 5 TD #12 RB
WR Vernell Brown III 9 rec · 160 yds · 2 TD #112 WR
DL LJ McCray 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #207 DL
Texas Longhorns
RB Hollywood Smothers 144 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #17 RB
DB Graceson Littleton 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #52 DB
WR Ryan Wingo 11 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #64 WR
LB Justin Cryer 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #88 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida GatorsSEC +20.0 +9.7 +10.3 #38
Texas LonghornsSEC +30.0 +14.2 +15.8 #7

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida offense vs Texas defense-6.2 pts
Texas offense vs Florida defense+3.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 921 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.