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The Citadel

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -14.5 · #340
Our numberTA&M -52.0 no book has priced this game

Texas A&M

SEC · 2-0 · power +31.6 · #5
Our side
MoneylineTA&M to win ours 99%
Projected score 4–56 CIT – TA&M
2026-10-17 · 1:00 PM Kyle Field · College Station, TX Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Texas A&M lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2006
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 26 ranks apart
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense Texas A&M Aggies #177 run defense
Pass game even 12 ranks apart
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense Texas A&M Aggies #14 pass defense
Run game edge Texas A&M Aggies 84 ranks
Texas A&M Aggies #67 rush offense The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game edge Texas A&M Aggies 204 ranks
Texas A&M Aggies #55 pass offense The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
The Citadel Bulldogs Run-heavy · 81% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg Texas A&M Aggies Balanced · 55% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Mike Elko · 35-16

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB Zyion Brown 28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #19 LB
RB Gavin Garcia 289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #21 RB
DB J'hari Mosley 18 tkl · 1 INT #150 DB
RB Sebastien Boyle 94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #137 RB
Texas A&M Aggies
DL Marco Jones 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #10 DL
DB Julio Humphrey 2 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #84 DB
WR Isaiah Horton 7 rec · 109 yds · 3 TD #82 WR
DL T.J. Searcy 8 tkl · 1.5 TFL #166 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
The Citadel Bulldogs -14.5 -4.0 -10.5 #340
Texas A&M AggiesSEC +31.6 +16.2 +15.4 #5

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
The Citadel offense vs Texas A&M defense-19.5 pts
Texas A&M offense vs The Citadel defense+26.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 974 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.