← Matchups

Oklahoma

SEC · 1-1 · power +23.9 · #20
Our numberOU -0.5 no book has priced this game

Mississippi State

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.2 · #37
Our side
MoneylineOU to win ours 46%
Projected score 27–26 OU – MSST
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Mississippi State Bulldogs 49 ranks
Oklahoma Sooners #212 rush offense Mississippi State Bulldogs #163 run defense
Pass game even 20 ranks apart
Oklahoma Sooners #152 pass offense Mississippi State Bulldogs #132 pass defense
Run game edge Oklahoma Sooners 93 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #102 rush offense Oklahoma Sooners #9 run defense
Pass game edge Oklahoma Sooners 139 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #149 pass offense Oklahoma Sooners #10 pass defense
Oklahoma Sooners Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg Mississippi State Bulldogs Balanced · 57% run Avg pace
Brent Venables · 32-20 · defense-minded Jeff Lebby · 7-18

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Oklahoma Sooners
TE Rocky Beers 8 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD #13 TE
DB Reggie Powers III 11 tkl · 1 PD #103 DB
QB John Mateer 414 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #26 QB
DL Taylor Wein 11 tkl · 3.0 TFL #142 DL
Mississippi State Bulldogs
QB Kamario Taylor 581 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #5 QB
WR Anthony Evans III 14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD #20 WR
K Kyle Ferrie 3 FG · 13 XP · 22 pts #19 K
RB Fluff Bothwell 165 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #66 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Oklahoma SoonersSEC +23.9 +6.0 +17.9 #20
Mississippi State BulldogsSEC +20.2 +15.3 +4.9 #37

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Oklahoma offense vs Mississippi State defense+1.1 pts
Mississippi State offense vs Oklahoma defense-2.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 508 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.