← Matchups

Missouri

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.3 · #36
Our numberMIZ -13.5 no book has priced this game

Arkansas

SEC · 1-1 · power +10.4 · #80
Our side
MoneylineMIZ to win ours 31%
Projected score 34–20 MIZ – ARK
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Missouri lead 13–4 · 17 meetings since 1906
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Missouri Tigers 207 ranks
Missouri Tigers #29 rush offense Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game even 20 ranks apart
Missouri Tigers #217 pass offense Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Run game even 44 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense Missouri Tigers #57 run defense
Pass game edge Missouri Tigers 63 ranks
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense Missouri Tigers #11 pass defense
Missouri Tigers Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Arkansas Razorbacks Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Eli Drinkwitz · 58-30 Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Missouri Tigers
WR Donovan Olugbode 14 rec · 237 yds · 3 TD #28 WR
QB Austin Simmons 544 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #15 QB
WR Cayden Lee 10 rec · 200 yds · 2 TD #78 WR
RB Jamal Roberts 172 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #136 RB
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB Khmori House 8 tkl #173 DB
WR Chris Marshall 12 rec · 142 yds #196 WR
DB Christian Harrison 9 tkl · 1 INT #325 DB
DB Joker Johnson 10 tkl · 1 PD #465 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Missouri TigersSEC +20.3 +8.6 +11.7 #36
Arkansas RazorbacksSEC +10.4 +5.8 +4.5 #80

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Missouri offense vs Arkansas defense+4.0 pts
Arkansas offense vs Missouri defense-5.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.