Our side
MoneylineMSST to win
ours 51%
Projected score
26–31
VAN – MSST
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD
Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS
SEC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Mississippi State lead
15–7–2
· 24 meetings since 1904
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Vanderbilt Commodores
159 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #4 rush offense
Mississippi State Bulldogs #163 run defense
Pass game
edge Vanderbilt Commodores
126 ranks
Vanderbilt Commodores #6 pass offense
Mississippi State Bulldogs #132 pass defense
Run game
edge Vanderbilt Commodores
52 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #102 rush offense
Vanderbilt Commodores #50 run defense
Pass game
edge Mississippi State Bulldogs
45 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #149 pass offense
Vanderbilt Commodores #194 pass defense
Vanderbilt Commodores
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 69 rush ypg
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Clark Lea · 26-36 · offense-minded
Jeff Lebby · 7-18
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Vanderbilt Commodores
LB
Nick Rinaldi
13 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#7 LB
DB
CJ Heard
14 tkl · 1 PD
#21 DB
DL
Miles Capers
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#23 DL
DL
Issa Ouattara
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#139 DL
Mississippi State Bulldogs
QB
Kamario Taylor
581 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
#5 QB
WR
Anthony Evans III
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#20 WR
K
Kyle Ferrie
3 FG · 13 XP · 22 pts
#19 K
RB
Fluff Bothwell
165 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#66 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Vanderbilt offense vs Mississippi State defense+6.3 pts
Mississippi State offense vs Vanderbilt defense+4.7 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.