← Matchups

Kentucky

SEC · 1-1 (0-1 SEC) · power +14.3 · #58
Our numberMIZ -9.0 no book has priced this game

Missouri

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.3 · #36
Our side
MoneylineMIZ to win ours 68%
Projected score 21–30 UK – MIZ
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD Memorial Stadium · Columbia, MO SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Kentucky lead 9–5 · 14 meetings since 1965
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Missouri Tigers 133 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #190 rush offense Missouri Tigers #57 run defense
Pass game edge Missouri Tigers 157 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #168 pass offense Missouri Tigers #11 pass defense
Run game edge Missouri Tigers 85 ranks
Missouri Tigers #29 rush offense Kentucky Wildcats #114 run defense
Pass game even 31 ranks apart
Missouri Tigers #217 pass offense Kentucky Wildcats #186 pass defense
Kentucky Wildcats Balanced · 56% run Ball-control Missouri Tigers Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace
Mark Stoops · 75-63 Eli Drinkwitz · 58-30

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Kentucky Wildcats
DL Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #5 DL
DB Jordan Castell 16 tkl · 1 INT #22 DB
DL Tavion Gadson 5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #33 DL
TE Willie Rodriguez 12 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD #16 TE
Missouri Tigers
WR Donovan Olugbode 14 rec · 237 yds · 3 TD #28 WR
QB Austin Simmons 544 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #15 QB
WR Cayden Lee 10 rec · 200 yds · 2 TD #78 WR
RB Jamal Roberts 172 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #136 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Kentucky WildcatsSEC +14.3 +4.7 +9.5 #58
Missouri TigersSEC +20.3 +8.6 +11.7 #36

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Kentucky offense vs Missouri defense-7.0 pts
Missouri offense vs Kentucky defense-1.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 428 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.