BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Auburn

SEC · 2-0 · power +21.2 · #30
Our numberALA -16.0 no book has priced this game

Alabama

SEC · 2-0 (1-0 SEC) · power +33.7 · #4
Our side
MoneylineALA to win ours 81%
Projected score 16–32 AUB – ALA
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa, AL SEC game Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book AUB spreadALA spread OverUnder AUB winALA win AUB TT overAUB TT under ALA TT overALA TT under
DraftKings — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Series Alabama lead 51–32–1 · 84 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Auburn Tigers 74 ranks
Auburn Tigers #23 rush offense Alabama Crimson Tide #97 run defense
Pass game edge Alabama Crimson Tide 164 ranks
Auburn Tigers #193 pass offense Alabama Crimson Tide #29 pass defense
Run game edge Auburn Tigers 208 ranks
Alabama Crimson Tide #213 rush offense Auburn Tigers #5 run defense
Pass game edge Alabama Crimson Tide 78 ranks
Alabama Crimson Tide #49 pass offense Auburn Tigers #127 pass defense
Auburn Tigers Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg Alabama Crimson Tide Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Hugh Freeze · 64-44 Kalen DeBoer · 57-17

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Auburn Tigers
LB Elijah Melendez 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #4 LB
DB Andre Jordan Jr. 5 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #14 DB
DL Cody Sigler 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #149 DL
DB Eric Winters 14 tkl #194 DB
Alabama Crimson Tide
K Conor Talty 5 FG · 10 XP · 25 pts #2 K
LB Yhonzae Pierre 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #30 LB
LB Luke Metz 10 tkl #35 LB
RB Daniel Hill 151 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #29 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Auburn TigersSEC +21.2 +5.8 +15.4 #30
Alabama Crimson TideSEC +33.7 +18.9 +14.9 #4

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Auburn offense vs Alabama defense-9.1 pts
Alabama offense vs Auburn defense+3.4 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.