Our side
MoneylineLSU to win
ours 18%
Projected score
37–16
LSU – ARK
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR
SEC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
LSU lead
45–23–2
· 70 meetings since 1906
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge LSU Tigers
66 ranks
LSU Tigers #170 rush offense
Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game
edge LSU Tigers
60 ranks
LSU Tigers #177 pass offense
Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Run game
even
16 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense
LSU Tigers #29 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense
LSU Tigers #90 pass defense
LSU Tigers
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Arkansas Razorbacks
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Frank Wilson · 21-32 · defense-minded
Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
LSU Tigers
DL
Jordan Ross
7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#3 DL
DL
Princewill Umanmielen
11 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6.0 TFL
#4 DL
TE
Trey'Dez Green
10 rec · 162 yds · 1 TD
#5 TE
RB
Dilin Jones
179 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#45 RB
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB
Khmori House
8 tkl
#173 DB
WR
Chris Marshall
12 rec · 142 yds
#196 WR
DB
Christian Harrison
9 tkl · 1 INT
#325 DB
DB
Joker Johnson
10 tkl · 1 PD
#465 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
LSU offense vs Arkansas defense+8.2 pts
Arkansas offense vs LSU defense-8.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 427 mi
Altitude · context only398 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.