← Matchups

LSU

SEC · 2-0 · power +27.0 · #10
Our numberLSU -20.6 no book has priced this game

Arkansas

SEC · 1-1 · power +10.4 · #80
Our side
MoneylineLSU to win ours 18%
Projected score 37–16 LSU – ARK
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series LSU lead 45–23–2 · 70 meetings since 1906
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge LSU Tigers 66 ranks
LSU Tigers #170 rush offense Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game edge LSU Tigers 60 ranks
LSU Tigers #177 pass offense Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Run game even 16 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense LSU Tigers #29 run defense
Pass game even 16 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense LSU Tigers #90 pass defense
LSU Tigers Balanced · 45% run Ball-control Arkansas Razorbacks Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Frank Wilson · 21-32 · defense-minded Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
LSU Tigers
DL Jordan Ross 7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #3 DL
DL Princewill Umanmielen 11 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6.0 TFL #4 DL
TE Trey'Dez Green 10 rec · 162 yds · 1 TD #5 TE
RB Dilin Jones 179 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec #45 RB
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB Khmori House 8 tkl #173 DB
WR Chris Marshall 12 rec · 142 yds #196 WR
DB Christian Harrison 9 tkl · 1 INT #325 DB
DB Joker Johnson 10 tkl · 1 PD #465 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
LSU TigersSEC +27.0 +12.8 +14.2 #10
Arkansas RazorbacksSEC +10.4 +5.8 +4.5 #80

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
LSU offense vs Arkansas defense+8.2 pts
Arkansas offense vs LSU defense-8.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 427 mi
Altitude · context only398 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.