Our side
MoneylineFLA to win
ours 45%
Projected score
30–21
FLA – FSU
2026-11-27 · 3:30 PM
Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Florida lead
39–29–2
· 70 meetings since 1904
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
27 ranks apart
Florida Gators #80 rush offense
Florida State Seminoles #107 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida State Seminoles
115 ranks
Florida Gators #184 pass offense
Florida State Seminoles #69 pass defense
Run game
edge Florida State Seminoles
57 ranks
Florida State Seminoles #21 rush offense
Florida Gators #78 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida State Seminoles
136 ranks
Florida State Seminoles #32 pass offense
Florida Gators #168 pass defense
Florida Gators
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Florida State Seminoles
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Billy Napier · 62-35
Mike Norvell · 76-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Gators
DL
Jeramiah McCloud
12 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#27 DL
RB
Jadan Baugh
296 rush yds · 5 TD
#12 RB
WR
Vernell Brown III
9 rec · 160 yds · 2 TD
#112 WR
DL
LJ McCray
4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#207 DL
Florida State Seminoles
DB
Ashlynd Barker
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#32 DB
RB
Ousmane Kromah
231 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#31 RB
RB
Samuel Singleton Jr.
66 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
#36 RB
LB
Chris Jones
15 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#77 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Florida offense vs Florida State defense+0.7 pts
Florida State offense vs Florida defense-3.3 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.