BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Boston College

ACC · 1-1 · power +4.0 · #131
Our numberCIN -14.0 no book has priced this game

Cincinnati

B12 · 2-0 · power +16.3 · #51
Final BC 15 · CIN 34 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineCIN to win logged ours 78%

Our number: CIN by 10.5 — CIN to win.

BC team totalBC under 21.5 logged ours 20.7

Our number: BC 19.2, from our margin and total split into two scores.

CIN team totalCIN under 30.5 logged ours 34.8

Our number: CIN 29.7, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 21–35 BC – CIN
2026-09-05 · 3:30 PM Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book BC spreadCIN spread OverUnder BC winCIN win BC TT overBC TT under CIN TT overCIN TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread CIN 59% bets · 32% money · money BC total Under 84% bets · 83% money ML CIN 96% bets · 73% money
Series Boston College and Cincinnati split 8 (4–4) · 8 meetings since 1961
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 10 ranks apart
Boston College Eagles #175 rush offense Cincinnati Bearcats #185 run defense
Pass game even 12 ranks apart
Boston College Eagles #140 pass offense Cincinnati Bearcats #152 pass defense
Run game edge Cincinnati Bearcats 129 ranks
Cincinnati Bearcats #27 rush offense Boston College Eagles #156 run defense
Pass game edge Cincinnati Bearcats 159 ranks
Cincinnati Bearcats #37 pass offense Boston College Eagles #196 pass defense
Boston College Eagles Balanced · 45% run Avg pace Cincinnati Bearcats Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Bill O'Brien · 9-16 Scott Satterfield · 80-57 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Boston College Eagles
LB Anthony Palano 22 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #3 LB
DB Marcus Upton 13 tkl · 2 PD #134 DB
DL E'Lla Boykin 8 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #211 DL
RB Evan Dickens 103 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #85 RB
Cincinnati Bearcats
RB Gi'Bran Payne 210 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #70 RB
DL Josh Hough 7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #206 DL
WR JV Gibson 9 rec · 133 yds · 2 TD #129 WR
LB Jonathan Thompson 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #144 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Boston College EaglesACC +4.0 +0.7 +3.3 #131
Cincinnati BearcatsB12 +16.3 +8.9 +7.5 #51

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Boston College offense vs Cincinnati defense-6.7 pts
Cincinnati offense vs Boston College defense+5.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 732 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.