Final
SOU 6 · HOU 77
ML W
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineHOU to win logged
ours 99%
Our number: HOU by 46.3 — HOU to win.
Projected score
10–51
SOU – HOU
2026-09-12 · 7:00 PM
TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Houston lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2008
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
27 ranks apart
Southern Jaguars #113 rush offense
Houston Cougars #86 run defense
Pass game
edge Houston Cougars
119 ranks
Southern Jaguars #219 pass offense
Houston Cougars #100 pass defense
Run game
even
42 ranks apart
Houston Cougars #244 rush offense
Southern Jaguars #202 run defense
Pass game
edge Houston Cougars
101 ranks
Houston Cougars #81 pass offense
Southern Jaguars #182 pass defense
Southern Jaguars
Run-heavy · 65% run
Ball-control
Houston Cougars
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg
Willie Fritz · 77-62 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Jaguars
DB
Tay James
8 tkl · 1 INT
#79 DB
DL
Ckelby Givens
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#119 DL
RB
Trey Holly
141 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#184 RB
DB
Ty Lee
9 tkl · 1 PD
#525 DB
Houston Cougars
WR
Amare Thomas
11 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
#73 WR
TE
Patrick Overmyer
8 rec · 100 yds · 1 TD
#30 TE
DB
Jordan Allen
5 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
#162 DB
DB
Jalen Mayo
9 tkl · 2 PD
#271 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Southern offense vs Houston defense-12.5 pts
Houston offense vs Southern defense+21.0 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.