Our side · spreadISU +14loggedour number at the pick IOWA -13.6 · now IOWA -4.7 · 9.3 pts from the market now
Iowa
B1G · 2-0 · power +24.7 · #19
FinalISU 13 · IOWA 16ML WSpread WTotal Lour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadISU +14loggedours IOWA -4.7
The line has not moved a point since it opened (IOWA -14.5 → -14), so our number decides: IOWA by 13.6 against IOWA -14 means ISU covers.
TotalOver 40.5loggedlive now: Over 42.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 46.9
The total has not moved a point since it opened (41 → 40.5); ours 48.3 against 40.5 says over.
MoneylineIOWA to winloggedours 60% · book 83%
Our number: IOWA by 13.6 — IOWA to win.
ISU team totalISU over 12.5loggedlive now: ISU over 13.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 21.1
Our number: ISU 17.4, from our margin and total split into two scores.
IOWA team totalIOWA over 26.5loggedlive now: IOWA over 28.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 25.8
Our number: IOWA 31.0, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Distance from the market9.3 pts / +4.4 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score21–26ISU – IOWA
2026-09-12 · 7:30 PMKinnick Stadium · Iowa City, IAEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
ISU spread
IOWA spread
Over
Under
ISU win
IOWA win
ISU TT over
ISU TT under
IOWA TT over
IOWA TT under
DraftKings
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—
—
—
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
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The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadIowa -4.7
the marketIowa -14.0
Total46.9
the market42.5
Iowa win60%
vs 83%
Both percentages are Iowa’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadISU 50% bets · 56% moneytotalUnder 60% bets · 68% moneyMLIOWA 98% bets · 46% money · money ISU
Series
Iowa lead
47–23
· 70 meetings since 1895
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameeven1 ranks apart
Iowa State Cyclones #76 rush offenseIowa Hawkeyes #75 run defense
Pass gameedge Iowa Hawkeyes65 ranks
Iowa State Cyclones #87 pass offenseIowa Hawkeyes #22 pass defense
Run gameeven0 ranks apart
Iowa Hawkeyes #49 rush offenseIowa State Cyclones #49 run defense
Pass gameeven12 ranks apart
Iowa Hawkeyes #131 pass offenseIowa State Cyclones #119 pass defense
Matt Campbell · 81-57Kirk Ferentz · 98-43 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Iowa State offense vs Iowa defense-10.3 pts
Iowa offense vs Iowa State defense-7.5 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.