BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

BYU

B12 · 2-0 (1-0 B12) · power +25.1 · #16
Our side · spreadCSU +20.5 our number BYU -18.6 · 1.9 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected -2.7 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Colorado State

MWC · 2-0 (1-0 MWC) · power +7.2 · #101
Our side
SpreadCSU +20.5 ours BYU -18.6
TotalUnder 52.5 ours 49.1
MoneylineBYU to win ours 19% · book 10%
Distance from the market 1.9 pts / -3.4 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 34–15 BYU – CSU
2026-09-19 · 7:30 PM Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book BYU spreadCSU spread OverUnder BYU winCSU win BYU TT overBYU TT under CSU TT overCSU TT under
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadBYU -18.6
the marketColorado State +20.5
Total49.1
the market52.5
Colorado State win19% vs 10%

Both percentages are Colorado State’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series BYU lead 39–27–3 · 69 meetings since 1922
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge BYU Cougars 143 ranks
BYU Cougars #43 rush offense Colorado State Rams #186 run defense
Pass game edge BYU Cougars 166 ranks
BYU Cougars #99 pass offense Colorado State Rams #265 pass defense
Run game edge BYU Cougars 69 ranks
Colorado State Rams #132 rush offense BYU Cougars #63 run defense
Pass game edge BYU Cougars 124 ranks
Colorado State Rams #183 pass offense BYU Cougars #59 pass defense
BYU Cougars Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 41 rush ypg Colorado State Rams Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Kalani Sitake · 84-45 Tyson Summers · 5-18

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
BYU Cougars
QB Bear Bachmeier 415 pass yds · 6 TD · 0 INT #12 QB
DL Tausili Akana 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #171 DL
WR Legend Glasker 6 rec · 139 yds · 2 TD #113 WR
WR Kyler Kasper 8 rec · 93 yds · 2 TD #116 WR
Colorado State Rams
QB Hauss Hejny 539 pass yds · 9 TD · 1 INT #11 QB
WR RJ Vick 9 rec · 108 yds · 3 TD #65 WR
DB Tre'Shawn Moore 16 tkl · 1 PD #115 DB
RB Mel Brown 228 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #58 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
BYU CougarsB12 +25.1 +13.9 +11.2 #16
Colorado State RamsMWC +7.2 +6.0 +1.2 #101

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
BYU offense vs Colorado State defense+12.7 pts
Colorado State offense vs BYU defense-5.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.