BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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Utah State

MWC · 0-2 · power +8.0 · #93
Our side · spreadUSU +28.5 our number UTAH -24.6 · 3.9 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected +0.9 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Utah

B12 · 2-0 · power +30.1 · #6
Our side
SpreadUSU +28.5 ours UTAH -24.6
TotalUnder 57.5 ours 55.0
MoneylineUTAH to win ours 91% · book 96%
Distance from the market 3.9 pts / -2.5 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 15–40 USU – UTAH
2026-09-19 · 3:30 PM Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City, UT Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book USU spreadUTAH spread OverUnder USU winUTAH win USU TT overUSU TT under UTAH TT overUTAH TT under
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadUtah -24.6
the marketUtah -28.5
Total55.0
the market57.5
Utah win91% vs 96%

Both percentages are Utah’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series Utah lead 73–28–4 · 105 meetings since 1905
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Utah State Aggies 75 ranks
Utah State Aggies #63 rush offense Utah Utes #138 run defense
Pass game edge Utah Utes 119 ranks
Utah State Aggies #126 pass offense Utah Utes #7 pass defense
Run game edge Utah Utes 220 ranks
Utah Utes #3 rush offense Utah State Aggies #223 run defense
Pass game even 21 ranks apart
Utah Utes #40 pass offense Utah State Aggies #61 pass defense
Utah State Aggies Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 61 rush ypg Utah Utes Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg
Bronco Mendenhall · 56-56 · offense-minded Morgan Scalley · 1-0

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Utah State Aggies
DL Carson Tujague 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #62 DL
WR Eli Wood 12 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #55 WR
WR Javon Robinson 6 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD #163 WR
DB Brevin Hamblin 10 tkl · 1 PD #366 DB
Utah Utes
RB Wayshawn Parker 124 rush yds · 3 TD · 8 rec #8 RB
TE Noah Bennee 5 rec · 148 yds · 2 TD #8 TE
QB Devon Dampier 437 pass yds · 5 TD · 1 INT #9 QB
DL Jireh Moe 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #105 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Utah State AggiesMWC +8.0 +2.3 +5.7 #93
Utah UtesB12 +30.1 +18.4 +11.7 #6

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Utah State offense vs Utah defense-9.4 pts
Utah offense vs Utah State defense+12.7 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.