BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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West Virginia

B12 · 2-0 · power +10.1 · #84
Our side · spreadUVA -9.5 our number UVA -11.5 · 2.0 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected -0.2 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Virginia

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +22.3 · #23
Our side
SpreadUVA -9.5 ours UVA -11.5
MoneylineUVA to win ours 74% · book 75%
Distance from the market 2.0 pts a caution, not a signal
Projected score 20–32 WVU – UVA
2026-09-19 · 7:30 PM Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC · neutral Early season

The books 2 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book WVU spreadUVA spread OverUnder WVU winUVA win WVU TT overWVU TT under UVA TT overUVA TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadVirginia -11.5
the marketVirginia -9.5
Total51.4
Virginia win74% vs 75%

Both percentages are Virginia’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series Virginia lead 12–9–1 · 22 meetings since 1921
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Virginia Cavaliers 215 ranks
West Virginia Mountaineers #253 rush offense Virginia Cavaliers #38 run defense
Pass game edge Virginia Cavaliers 154 ranks
West Virginia Mountaineers #189 pass offense Virginia Cavaliers #35 pass defense
Run game even 9 ranks apart
Virginia Cavaliers #46 rush offense West Virginia Mountaineers #55 run defense
Pass game edge Virginia Cavaliers 61 ranks
Virginia Cavaliers #128 pass offense West Virginia Mountaineers #189 pass defense
West Virginia Mountaineers Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Virginia Cavaliers Balanced · 53% run Avg pace
Rich Rodriguez · 39-38 · defense-minded Tony Elliott · 22-26 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
West Virginia Mountaineers
RB Cam Cook 194 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #38 RB
QB Michael Hawkins Jr. 287 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT #21 QB
LB Isaiah Patterson 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #193 LB
WR DJ Epps 5 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD #211 WR
Virginia Cavaliers
DL Fisher Camac 6 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #140 DL
DB Jacobie Henderson 12 tkl · 3 PD #147 DB
DB Brandyn Hillman 6 tkl · 3 INT #152 DB
K Will Bettridge 3 FG · 11 XP · 20 pts #36 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
West Virginia MountaineersB12 +10.1 +6.0 +4.0 #84
Virginia CavaliersACC +22.3 +8.6 +13.7 #23

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
West Virginia offense vs Virginia defense-7.7 pts
Virginia offense vs West Virginia defense+4.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.