Our side
MoneylineTTU to win
ours 97%
Projected score
10–44
SHSU – TTU
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
Galaxy Stadium · Lubbock, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Texas Tech lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Texas Tech Red Raiders
151 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense
Texas Tech Red Raiders #1 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Tech Red Raiders
257 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense
Texas Tech Red Raiders #2 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas Tech Red Raiders
160 ranks
Texas Tech Red Raiders #47 rush offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas Tech Red Raiders
182 ranks
Texas Tech Red Raiders #58 pass offense
Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Sam Houston Bearkats
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Phil Longo · 2-10
Joey McGuire · 35-18
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL
Brody Henderson
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#94 DL
WR
Chris Reed
7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD
#94 WR
WR
Grady O'Neill
12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
#103 WR
DB
Ishmel Atkins
7 tkl · 4 PD
#254 DB
Texas Tech Red Raiders
RB
J'Koby Williams
187 rush yds · 2 TD · 10 rec
#20 RB
LB
Ben Roberts
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#97 LB
DL
A.J. Holmes Jr.
6 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#187 DL
K
Stone Harrington
4 FG · 8 XP · 20 pts
#28 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Sam Houston offense vs Texas Tech defense-17.4 pts
Texas Tech offense vs Sam Houston defense+15.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 420 mi
Altitude · context only845 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.