← Matchups

Houston

B12 · 2-0 · power +13.9 · #61
Our numberHOU -12.3 no book has priced this game

Georgia Southern

SBC · 1-1 · power +6.1 · #112
Our side
MoneylineHOU to win ours 37%
Projected score 32–19 HOU – GASO
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD Allen E. Paulson Stadium · Statesboro, GA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 11 ranks apart
Houston Cougars #244 rush offense Georgia Southern Eagles #255 run defense
Pass game edge Houston Cougars 125 ranks
Houston Cougars #81 pass offense Georgia Southern Eagles #206 pass defense
Run game even 15 ranks apart
Georgia Southern Eagles #101 rush offense Houston Cougars #86 run defense
Pass game even 10 ranks apart
Georgia Southern Eagles #110 pass offense Houston Cougars #100 pass defense
Houston Cougars Run-heavy · 63% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg Georgia Southern Eagles Balanced · 51% run Avg pace
Willie Fritz · 77-62 · defense-minded Clay Helton · 72-49 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Houston Cougars
WR Amare Thomas 11 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD #73 WR
TE Patrick Overmyer 8 rec · 100 yds · 1 TD #30 TE
DB Jordan Allen 5 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT #162 DB
DB Jalen Mayo 9 tkl · 2 PD #271 DB
Georgia Southern Eagles
WR Ashton Hollins 13 rec · 203 yds · 2 TD #26 WR
LB Rashon Myles Jr. 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #83 LB
DB Chance Gamble 8 tkl · 2 PD #179 DB
DL Elijah Fears 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #325 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Houston CougarsB12 +13.9 +9.8 +4.1 #61
Georgia Southern EaglesSBC +6.1 +1.4 +4.7 #112

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Houston offense vs Georgia Southern defense+5.2 pts
Georgia Southern offense vs Houston defense-2.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 823 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.