← Matchups

Hawai'i

MWC · 1-2 (0-1 MWC) · power +2.1 · #151
Our numberASU -16.9 no book has priced this game

Arizona State

B12 · 1-1 · power +14.0 · #60
Our side
MoneylineASU to win ours 80%
Projected score 17–34 HAW – ASU
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Arizona State lead 5–2 · 7 meetings since 1954
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Arizona State Sun Devils 129 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense Arizona State Sun Devils #76 run defense
Pass game even 15 ranks apart
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense Arizona State Sun Devils #82 pass defense
Run game even 29 ranks apart
Arizona State Sun Devils #96 rush offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game even 11 ranks apart
Arizona State Sun Devils #134 pass offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Balanced · 42% run Avg pace Arizona State Sun Devils Balanced · 55% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Timmy Chang · 22-29 Kenny Dillingham · 22-17 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB Kona Moore 30 tkl · 2 PD #13 DB
RB DeVon Rice 167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec #23 RB
LB Jamih Otis 26 tkl #53 LB
DB Matagi Thompson 15 tkl · 4 PD #122 DB
Arizona State Sun Devils
WR Reed Harris 15 rec · 326 yds · 4 TD #4 WR
QB Cutter Boley 641 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT #22 QB
WR Omarion Miller 17 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD #86 WR
DB Montana Warren 10 tkl #343 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsMWC +2.1 -0.9 +3.0 #151
Arizona State Sun DevilsB12 +14.0 +10.4 +3.6 #60

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Hawai'i offense vs Arizona State defense-4.5 pts
Arizona State offense vs Hawai'i defense+7.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,913 mi
Altitude · context only355 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.