Our side
MoneylineBAY to win
ours 60%
Projected score
22–30
COLO – BAY
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
McLane Stadium · Waco, TX
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Colorado lead
10–7
· 17 meetings since 1959
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
34 ranks apart
Colorado Buffaloes #200 rush offense
Baylor Bears #166 run defense
Pass game
even
19 ranks apart
Colorado Buffaloes #154 pass offense
Baylor Bears #135 pass defense
Run game
edge Baylor Bears
92 ranks
Baylor Bears #68 rush offense
Colorado Buffaloes #160 run defense
Pass game
edge Baylor Bears
101 ranks
Baylor Bears #144 pass offense
Colorado Buffaloes #245 pass defense
Colorado Buffaloes
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg
Baylor Bears
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Deion Sanders · 16-21
Dave Aranda · 36-37
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Colorado Buffaloes
DL
Lamont Lester Jr.
7 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#19 DL
DL
Toby Anene
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#58 DL
DB
Randon Fontenette
12 tkl · 1 INT
#138 DB
QB
Julian Lewis
490 pass yds · 5 TD · 0 INT
#44 QB
Baylor Bears
WR
Gavin Freeman
22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD
#9 WR
DL
Garrick Ponder
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#56 DL
DL
Devonte Tezino
4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#73 DL
DB
Devin Turner
9 tkl · 1 PD
#235 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Colorado offense vs Baylor defense-2.8 pts
Baylor offense vs Colorado defense-0.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 741 mi
Altitude · context only1,517 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.