Our side
MoneylineKSU to win
ours 36%
Projected score
30–21
KSU – CIN
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Cincinnati lead
4–3
· 7 meetings since 1951
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Kansas State Wildcats
97 ranks
Kansas State Wildcats #88 rush offense
Cincinnati Bearcats #185 run defense
Pass game
even
28 ranks apart
Kansas State Wildcats #124 pass offense
Cincinnati Bearcats #152 pass defense
Run game
edge Cincinnati Bearcats
125 ranks
Cincinnati Bearcats #27 rush offense
Kansas State Wildcats #152 run defense
Pass game
even
38 ranks apart
Cincinnati Bearcats #37 pass offense
Kansas State Wildcats #75 pass defense
Kansas State Wildcats
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg
Cincinnati Bearcats
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Chris Klieman · 54-34
Scott Satterfield · 80-57 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Kansas State Wildcats
RB
Joe Jackson
106 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
#22 RB
WR
Josh Manning
13 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD
#51 WR
DL
Wendell Gregory
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#121 DL
RB
Rodney Fields Jr.
206 rush yds · 2 TD
#55 RB
Cincinnati Bearcats
RB
Gi'Bran Payne
210 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#70 RB
DL
Josh Hough
7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#206 DL
WR
JV Gibson
9 rec · 133 yds · 2 TD
#129 WR
LB
Jonathan Thompson
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#144 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Kansas State offense vs Cincinnati defense+8.2 pts
Cincinnati offense vs Kansas State defense-0.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 646 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.