Our side
MoneylineBAY to win
ours 47%
Projected score
29–25
BAY – ASU
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arizona State lead
2–0
· 2 meetings since 1990
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
8 ranks apart
Baylor Bears #68 rush offense
Arizona State Sun Devils #76 run defense
Pass game
edge Arizona State Sun Devils
62 ranks
Baylor Bears #144 pass offense
Arizona State Sun Devils #82 pass defense
Run game
edge Arizona State Sun Devils
70 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #96 rush offense
Baylor Bears #166 run defense
Pass game
even
1 ranks apart
Arizona State Sun Devils #134 pass offense
Baylor Bears #135 pass defense
Baylor Bears
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Arizona State Sun Devils
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Dave Aranda · 36-37
Kenny Dillingham · 22-17 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Baylor Bears
WR
Gavin Freeman
22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD
#9 WR
DL
Garrick Ponder
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#56 DL
DL
Devonte Tezino
4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#73 DL
DB
Devin Turner
9 tkl · 1 PD
#235 DB
Arizona State Sun Devils
WR
Reed Harris
15 rec · 326 yds · 4 TD
#4 WR
QB
Cutter Boley
641 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
#22 QB
WR
Omarion Miller
17 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#86 WR
DB
Montana Warren
10 tkl
#343 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Baylor offense vs Arizona State defense+6.0 pts
Arizona State offense vs Baylor defense+2.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 872 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.