← Matchups

Cincinnati

B12 · 2-0 · power +16.3 · #51
Our numberARIZ -13.1 no book has priced this game

Arizona

B12 · 1-1 (0-1 B12) · power +22.9 · #22
Our side
MoneylineARIZ to win ours 70%
Projected score 19–32 CIN – ARIZ
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Casino Del Sol Stadium · Tucson, AZ B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Arizona lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Cincinnati Bearcats 85 ranks
Cincinnati Bearcats #27 rush offense Arizona Wildcats #112 run defense
Pass game even 41 ranks apart
Cincinnati Bearcats #37 pass offense Arizona Wildcats #78 pass defense
Run game edge Arizona Wildcats 120 ranks
Arizona Wildcats #65 rush offense Cincinnati Bearcats #185 run defense
Pass game edge Arizona Wildcats 46 ranks
Arizona Wildcats #106 pass offense Cincinnati Bearcats #152 pass defense
Cincinnati Bearcats Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg Arizona Wildcats Balanced · 51% run Avg pace
Scott Satterfield · 80-57 · offense-minded Brent Brennan · 47-60

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Cincinnati Bearcats
RB Gi'Bran Payne 210 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #70 RB
DL Josh Hough 7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #206 DL
WR JV Gibson 9 rec · 133 yds · 2 TD #129 WR
LB Jonathan Thompson 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #144 LB
Arizona Wildcats
QB Noah Fifita 492 pass yds · 3 TD · 1 INT #42 QB
WR Giovanni Richardson 13 rec · 144 yds #162 WR
LB Chase Kennedy 9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #182 LB
RB Kedrick Reescano 97 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #152 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Cincinnati BearcatsB12 +16.3 +8.9 +7.5 #51
Arizona WildcatsB12 +22.9 +7.1 +15.8 #22

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Cincinnati offense vs Arizona defense-6.9 pts
Arizona offense vs Cincinnati defense-0.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,552 mi
Altitude · context only511 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.