Our side
MoneylineKSU to win
ours 78%
Projected score
19–32
HOU – KSU
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Houston and Kansas State split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Kansas State Wildcats
92 ranks
Houston Cougars #244 rush offense
Kansas State Wildcats #152 run defense
Pass game
even
6 ranks apart
Houston Cougars #81 pass offense
Kansas State Wildcats #75 pass defense
Run game
even
2 ranks apart
Kansas State Wildcats #88 rush offense
Houston Cougars #86 run defense
Pass game
even
24 ranks apart
Kansas State Wildcats #124 pass offense
Houston Cougars #100 pass defense
Houston Cougars
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg
Kansas State Wildcats
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg
Willie Fritz · 77-62 · defense-minded
Chris Klieman · 54-34
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Houston Cougars
WR
Amare Thomas
11 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
#73 WR
TE
Patrick Overmyer
8 rec · 100 yds · 1 TD
#30 TE
DB
Jordan Allen
5 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
#162 DB
DB
Jalen Mayo
9 tkl · 2 PD
#271 DB
Kansas State Wildcats
RB
Joe Jackson
106 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
#22 RB
WR
Josh Manning
13 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD
#51 WR
DL
Wendell Gregory
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#121 DL
RB
Rodney Fields Jr.
206 rush yds · 2 TD
#55 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Houston offense vs Kansas State defense+0.6 pts
Kansas State offense vs Houston defense+11.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 659 mi
Altitude · context only322 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.