← Matchups

Iowa State

B12 · 1-1 · power +21.9 · #27

Our numberBYU -10.5 ~~no book has priced this game~~

BYU

B12 · 2-0 (1-0 B12) · power +25.1 · #16

Our side

MoneylineBYU to win ours 62%

Projected score 18–29 ISU – BYU

2026-10-09 · 10:15 PM LaVell Edwards Stadium · Provo, UT B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Iowa State lead 5–1 · 6 meetings since 1968

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game even ~~13 ranks apart~~

Iowa State Cyclones #76 rush offense BYU Cougars #63 run defense

Pass game even ~~28 ranks apart~~

Iowa State Cyclones #87 pass offense BYU Cougars #59 pass defense

Run game even ~~6 ranks apart~~

BYU Cougars #43 rush offense Iowa State Cyclones #49 run defense

Pass game even ~~20 ranks apart~~

BYU Cougars #99 pass offense Iowa State Cyclones #119 pass defense

Iowa State Cyclones Run-heavy · 58% run Avg pace BYU Cougars Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 41 rush ypg

Matt Campbell · 81-57 Kalani Sitake · 84-45

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Iowa State Cyclones

DL Isaac Terrell 5 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #116 DL

LB Sullivan Schlimgen 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #87 LB

TE Vince Benetti 3 rec · 34 yds · 2 TD #42 TE

QB Jaylen Raynor 301 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT #82 QB

BYU Cougars

QB Bear Bachmeier 415 pass yds · 6 TD · 0 INT #12 QB

DL Tausili Akana 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #171 DL

WR Legend Glasker 6 rec · 139 yds · 2 TD #113 WR

WR Kyler Kasper 8 rec · 93 yds · 2 TD #116 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Iowa State Cyclones~~B12~~	+21.9	+7.5	+14.4	#27
BYU Cougars~~B12~~	+25.1	+13.9	+11.2	#16

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Iowa State offense vs BYU defense-3.7 pts

BYU offense vs Iowa State defense-0.5 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 944 mi

Altitude · context only1,145 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.