Our side
MoneylineBAY to win
ours 54%
Projected score
24–28
TCU – BAY
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
McLane Stadium · Waco, TX
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
TCU lead
60–50–5
· 115 meetings since 1903
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
13 ranks apart
TCU Horned Frogs #153 rush offense
Baylor Bears #166 run defense
Pass game
edge TCU Horned Frogs
99 ranks
TCU Horned Frogs #36 pass offense
Baylor Bears #135 pass defense
Run game
even
40 ranks apart
Baylor Bears #68 rush offense
TCU Horned Frogs #108 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
Baylor Bears #144 pass offense
TCU Horned Frogs #160 pass defense
TCU Horned Frogs
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Baylor Bears
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Sonny Dykes · 79-46
Dave Aranda · 36-37
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
TCU Horned Frogs
TE
Kari Ashley
10 rec · 136 yds · 2 TD
#6 TE
DB
Teon Parks
1 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#65 DB
DL
Ansel Din-Mbuh
6 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#98 DL
RB
Jeremy Payne
221 rush yds · 6 rec
#81 RB
Baylor Bears
WR
Gavin Freeman
22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD
#9 WR
DL
Garrick Ponder
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#56 DL
DL
Devonte Tezino
4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#73 DL
DB
Devin Turner
9 tkl · 1 PD
#235 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
TCU offense vs Baylor defense+2.0 pts
Baylor offense vs TCU defense+1.8 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.