← Matchups

Kansas State

B12 · 2-0 · power +24.9 · #17
Our numberKSU -9.4 no book has priced this game

Arizona State

B12 · 1-1 · power +14.0 · #60
Our side
MoneylineKSU to win ours 29%
Projected score 31–22 KSU – ASU
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Arizona State lead 6–1 · 7 meetings since 1964
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 12 ranks apart
Kansas State Wildcats #88 rush offense Arizona State Sun Devils #76 run defense
Pass game even 42 ranks apart
Kansas State Wildcats #124 pass offense Arizona State Sun Devils #82 pass defense
Run game edge Arizona State Sun Devils 56 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #96 rush offense Kansas State Wildcats #152 run defense
Pass game edge Kansas State Wildcats 59 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #134 pass offense Kansas State Wildcats #75 pass defense
Kansas State Wildcats Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg Arizona State Sun Devils Balanced · 55% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Chris Klieman · 54-34 Kenny Dillingham · 22-17 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Kansas State Wildcats
RB Joe Jackson 106 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #22 RB
WR Josh Manning 13 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD #51 WR
DL Wendell Gregory 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #121 DL
RB Rodney Fields Jr. 206 rush yds · 2 TD #55 RB
Arizona State Sun Devils
WR Reed Harris 15 rec · 326 yds · 4 TD #4 WR
QB Cutter Boley 641 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT #22 QB
WR Omarion Miller 17 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD #86 WR
DB Montana Warren 10 tkl #343 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Kansas State WildcatsB12 +24.9 +15.7 +9.2 #17
Arizona State Sun DevilsB12 +14.0 +10.4 +3.6 #60

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Kansas State offense vs Arizona State defense+12.1 pts
Arizona State offense vs Kansas State defense+1.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 941 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.