← Matchups

West Virginia

B12 · 2-0 · power +10.1 · #84
Our numberTCU -8.8 no book has priced this game

TCU

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.5 · #46
Our side
MoneylineTCU to win ours 72%
Projected score 21–30 WVU – TCU
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series West Virginia lead 8–6 · 14 meetings since 1984
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge TCU Horned Frogs 145 ranks
West Virginia Mountaineers #253 rush offense TCU Horned Frogs #108 run defense
Pass game even 29 ranks apart
West Virginia Mountaineers #189 pass offense TCU Horned Frogs #160 pass defense
Run game edge West Virginia Mountaineers 98 ranks
TCU Horned Frogs #153 rush offense West Virginia Mountaineers #55 run defense
Pass game edge TCU Horned Frogs 153 ranks
TCU Horned Frogs #36 pass offense West Virginia Mountaineers #189 pass defense
West Virginia Mountaineers Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control TCU Horned Frogs Balanced · 49% run Avg pace
Rich Rodriguez · 39-38 · defense-minded Sonny Dykes · 79-46

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
West Virginia Mountaineers
RB Cam Cook 194 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #38 RB
QB Michael Hawkins Jr. 287 pass yds · 3 TD · 0 INT #21 QB
LB Isaiah Patterson 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #193 LB
WR DJ Epps 5 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD #211 WR
TCU Horned Frogs
TE Kari Ashley 10 rec · 136 yds · 2 TD #6 TE
DB Teon Parks 1 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #65 DB
DL Ansel Din-Mbuh 6 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #98 DL
RB Jeremy Payne 221 rush yds · 6 rec #81 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
West Virginia MountaineersB12 +10.1 +6.0 +4.0 #84
TCU Horned FrogsB12 +17.5 +9.7 +7.9 #46

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
West Virginia offense vs TCU defense-1.8 pts
TCU offense vs West Virginia defense+5.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,080 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.